Okay, I've been hearing a PSA on 96.1 recently, with voice-overs by Susan Woody and Greg Budell. They're telling us of the evils of texting & driving, and they pop out some statistics that I have heard before.
Texting while driving, we are told, causes 25% of all auto accidents. Texting while driving is 23 times worse than driving drunk.
They make more claims, but these are what I will deal with.
Before I begin, let me state clearly that I am NOT advocating that people text & drive. I'm just taking a look at the claims being made about it, i.e. does texting really cause 1 in 4 of all traffic accidents? Statistics that overstate reality are simply wrong and do more harm than good.
So let's start with the first claim. I did quite a lot of Google searching to dredge up this USA Today article, which actually refers to the report underlying the claims being made today. Please note that it makes a slightly different claim than is being made on 96.1. While they state that texting and driving causes 25% of all accidents, this article says that cell phone use does that. The distinction is an important one, if we feel any regard for the actual facts. ALL uses of cell phones combined, the article states, are responsible for causing 25% of all accidents.
So let's see what the underlying research actually says. The study was conducted by the National Safety Council, and a summary of the results can be found online here.
Reading the first page, we find that: "Cell phone use is now estimated to be involved in 26 percent of all motor vehicle crashes – up from the previous year."
The first thing to notice is that it deals specifically with "cell phone use", as mentioned in the USA Today article, not with "texting", as the 96.1 radio PSA does.
The next thing to notice is that the figure they arrive at is an ESTIMATE, not an actual figure. The document doesn't indicate the methodology used to arrive at the estimate, so for the moment we'll accept it at face value and move on.
The third thing to notice is that they use the phrase "involved in" instead of the more definitive "caused by". This is an important distinction, because it includes an unknown number of accidents in which a cell phone was present but was not a causative factor in the accident. For example, if driver A is stopped at a traffic signal and reading or sending a text message, when he is rear-ended by another car, then a cell phone could well be "involved in" this accident, but did not, by any stretch of the imagination, cause the accident. Again, the summary doesn't specify exactly what "involved in" means, so the exact details are impossible to determine. However we DO know that this figure includes accidents where cell phone use did NOT cause the accident.
The next fact in the report is that only 5% of accidents involve texting, with the other 20% involving other uses of the cell phone. So, texting while driving is only "involved in" (NOT "caused") 5% of traffic accidents, not the 25% claimed by the PSA.
Judging this claim from the 96.1 PSA in light of these facts, when they claim that "texting while driving causes 25% of all accidents", I find that the claim is false and misleading, overstating the actual facts for political impact.
Now let's deal with that second claim, that texting while driving is 23 times worse than driving drunk.
This one turns out to be a complete mish-mash of actual statistics.
The ACTUAL statistic is that "texting drivers are 23 times more likely to be involved in a crash than non-texting drivers." Note that the comparison is between texting and non-texting drivers, and has nothing to do with DUI. This figure is a bit old, coming from way back in 2009, and it came from a study involving cameras embedded into truck cabs. So it dealt with trucks, not cars. And there's another wrinkle:
So the "23 X" figure may be overstated for cars in the first place, and could be as low as 8 times.
Comparing texting drivers to those DUI, we find that driving while texting is 6 times more dangerous than DUI. Not 23, 6. Caveat: I have seen this figure quoted several times, but an extensive search failed to uncover the source of that figure. Therefore, take it with a HUGE grain of salt until I can verify it.
(I did find this Forbes article that says the "6X" figure came from an NHTSB report, but it provides no link. Of course, it also repeats the already disproven "texting causes 25% of accidents" claim. So, I'm still looking.)
Judging this claim from the 96.1 PSA in light of these facts, when they claim that "texting driving is 23X more dangerous than DUI", I find that the claim that it is more dangerous is accurate, but they vastly overstated how much more dangerous than DUI it is.
Look, I understand WHY they made this PSA, but incorrect statistics skew the discussion and aren't helpful at all. I recommend you do a little more research, and then re-record the PSA with the CORRECT facts, this time.
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Texting while driving, we are told, causes 25% of all auto accidents. Texting while driving is 23 times worse than driving drunk.
They make more claims, but these are what I will deal with.
Before I begin, let me state clearly that I am NOT advocating that people text & drive. I'm just taking a look at the claims being made about it, i.e. does texting really cause 1 in 4 of all traffic accidents? Statistics that overstate reality are simply wrong and do more harm than good.
So let's start with the first claim. I did quite a lot of Google searching to dredge up this USA Today article, which actually refers to the report underlying the claims being made today. Please note that it makes a slightly different claim than is being made on 96.1. While they state that texting and driving causes 25% of all accidents, this article says that cell phone use does that. The distinction is an important one, if we feel any regard for the actual facts. ALL uses of cell phones combined, the article states, are responsible for causing 25% of all accidents.
So let's see what the underlying research actually says. The study was conducted by the National Safety Council, and a summary of the results can be found online here.
Reading the first page, we find that: "Cell phone use is now estimated to be involved in 26 percent of all motor vehicle crashes – up from the previous year."
The first thing to notice is that it deals specifically with "cell phone use", as mentioned in the USA Today article, not with "texting", as the 96.1 radio PSA does.
The next thing to notice is that the figure they arrive at is an ESTIMATE, not an actual figure. The document doesn't indicate the methodology used to arrive at the estimate, so for the moment we'll accept it at face value and move on.
The third thing to notice is that they use the phrase "involved in" instead of the more definitive "caused by". This is an important distinction, because it includes an unknown number of accidents in which a cell phone was present but was not a causative factor in the accident. For example, if driver A is stopped at a traffic signal and reading or sending a text message, when he is rear-ended by another car, then a cell phone could well be "involved in" this accident, but did not, by any stretch of the imagination, cause the accident. Again, the summary doesn't specify exactly what "involved in" means, so the exact details are impossible to determine. However we DO know that this figure includes accidents where cell phone use did NOT cause the accident.
The next fact in the report is that only 5% of accidents involve texting, with the other 20% involving other uses of the cell phone. So, texting while driving is only "involved in" (NOT "caused") 5% of traffic accidents, not the 25% claimed by the PSA.
Judging this claim from the 96.1 PSA in light of these facts, when they claim that "texting while driving causes 25% of all accidents", I find that the claim is false and misleading, overstating the actual facts for political impact.
Now let's deal with that second claim, that texting while driving is 23 times worse than driving drunk.
This one turns out to be a complete mish-mash of actual statistics.
The ACTUAL statistic is that "texting drivers are 23 times more likely to be involved in a crash than non-texting drivers." Note that the comparison is between texting and non-texting drivers, and has nothing to do with DUI. This figure is a bit old, coming from way back in 2009, and it came from a study involving cameras embedded into truck cabs. So it dealt with trucks, not cars. And there's another wrinkle:
In a study over the last 18 months, college students using a sophisticated driving simulator showed an eight times greater crash risk when texting than when not texting.
David Strayer, a professor who co-wrote the University of Utah report, offered two explanations for the simulator’s showing lower risks than the Virginia study. Trucks are tougher to maneuver and stop, he noted, and the college students in his study might be somewhat better at multitasking.
So the "23 X" figure may be overstated for cars in the first place, and could be as low as 8 times.
Comparing texting drivers to those DUI, we find that driving while texting is 6 times more dangerous than DUI. Not 23, 6. Caveat: I have seen this figure quoted several times, but an extensive search failed to uncover the source of that figure. Therefore, take it with a HUGE grain of salt until I can verify it.
(I did find this Forbes article that says the "6X" figure came from an NHTSB report, but it provides no link. Of course, it also repeats the already disproven "texting causes 25% of accidents" claim. So, I'm still looking.)
Judging this claim from the 96.1 PSA in light of these facts, when they claim that "texting driving is 23X more dangerous than DUI", I find that the claim that it is more dangerous is accurate, but they vastly overstated how much more dangerous than DUI it is.
Look, I understand WHY they made this PSA, but incorrect statistics skew the discussion and aren't helpful at all. I recommend you do a little more research, and then re-record the PSA with the CORRECT facts, this time.